Low oil demand expected in 2012
A CGES ANALYST | JANUARY 2012 | SOURCE: Global Oil Insight
The fact that oil demand fell by 300,000 bpd y-o-y in 4Q11 could be a sign of things to come, largely because such a quarterly decline has been recorded only nine times over the last ten years.
The IEA’s January 2012 forecast of incremental demand in 2012 was cut to 1.07 mbpd from 1.26 mbpd in Dec-11, due to considerations such as a mild winter in much of the Northern Hemisphere, a growing consensus that world economic growth is slowing up and the likelihood that oil prices will remain high – an outlook that we happen to share.
However, we believe that the effect of weak economic growth and high oil prices on oil demand in 2012 is likely to be more pronounced than either the IEA or OPEC contends.
Moreover, since July 2011 our forecasts of incremental global oil demand have been consistently lower than the predictions of both organisations.
For further insight into oil demand, subscribe to the Global Oil Insight
Benefits of free membership:
Read free articles Receive e-mail newsletters and alerts Preview exclusive interviews with some of our top analystsSimply fill in this form
Required *
