FEBRUARY 2012
US driving season set to be another disappointment
Although the US economy is improving, there are fears that gasoline prices could head towards $4/US gallon.
Resources
Highlight
With production at 7 mbpd, Saudi Arabia would need a price of oil to reach $145/bbl
Recent
JANUARY 2012
Production up in Iraq and Libya – but for how long?
The prospect of rising export capacity in Iraq is being overshadowed by Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz.
JANUARY 2012
China defends itself against threat to supply
The potential fallout from the EU embargo of Iranian oil and the situation in South Sudan could affect China.
JANUARY 2012
Low oil demand expected in 2012
The fact that oil demand fell by 300,000 bpd y-o-y in 4Q11 could be a sign of things to come.
Archives
2012
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January 24, 2012
Four events that may lead to lower oil prices in 2012
As ever, we must take into account the likelihood that oil prices will drop below the levels predicted for 2012.
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January 23, 2012
Saudi Arabia vow to stabilise oil price at $100/bbl
The Kingdom’s new target is considerably higher than its previously avowed ‘fair’ price of $75/bbl
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January 19, 2012
International Petroleum (IP) Week 2012
With top level speakers, IP Week provides the most complete update on the future of the global oil and gas industry.
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January 16, 2012
OPEC exceed agreed production level
OPEC production has climbed to 30.94 mbpd, nearly 1 mbpd above the 30-mbpd level agreed upon when its ministers met.
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January 12, 2012
Three oil price scenarios for 2012
Three potential scenarios for where oil is headed in 2012 – a reference case, a low oil price scenario and a high oil price scenario.
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January 11, 2012
High prices deter US drivers
Average US retail prices this year are just over $3.50/USG — the highest on record.
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January 10, 2012
Large spurt in crude supplies
Saudi Arabia responded to strong demand from Asian refiners by raising output to 10 mbpd — the highest for thirty years
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January 9, 2012
Saudi Arabia’s budget in 2012
The CGES agrees that a small surplus is likely, but from much higher levels of both revenue and expenditure.
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January 3, 2012
Trouble in Iraq and Kazakhstan threatens crude output
In a matter of days both Iraq and Kazakhstan have threatened to descend into chaos.
2011
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December 19, 2011
US on target for energy self-sufficiency
Overall, US crude production in 2011 has seen growth of almost 200 tbpd compared with 2010.
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December 15, 2011
OPEC cuts production – but who will bear the burden?
OPEC set an overall production target of 30 mbpd at its December meeting in Vienna - 500,000 bpd lower than its current output.
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December 12, 2011
Iran adds upward pressure to oil prices
The CGES has calculated that 14% of global crude oil production could be at risk if the Straits of Hormuz were to become unnavigable
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December 6, 2011
Russia’s new Asian gas policy for 2012
Until recently, Russia's focus was on pipeline deliveries to China. The priority is now on the LNG options.
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December 5, 2011
Can the west survive without Iran’s oil?
Rising tensions with Iran due to its controversial nuclear programme helped push NYMEX WTI above the $100/bbl mark again last week.
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December 1, 2011
Thanksgiving boosts US gasoline consumption but demand still low
Although consumption did rise in the run-up to Thanksgiving, it's unlikely that this will be the start of any sustained increase.
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November 28, 2011
OPEC NGLs production will surpass 6 mbpd in 2012
The CGES' most recent forecast shows OPEC NGLs production surpassing 6 mbpd in 3Q12.
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November 24, 2011
Little hope for oil prices – but have consumers been pushed to their limit?
MPs are pressing the government to abandon plans to increase fuel duty, suggesting that end users are near their limits
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November 23, 2011
Expect high oil prices in 2012
With little sign of a change, oil prices look set to remain high over the coming winter and well into next year.
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November 22, 2011
Brazilian crude oil output up by 3%
Brazilian crude oil production reached 2.1 mbpd in September and October 2011, the highest since Jun-11 and up 3% y-o-y.
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November 17, 2011
Are we finding enough oil?
When the market is in this kind of mood its thoughts turn to the question of whether the world has been finding enough oil
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November 15, 2011
East Africa’s oil and gas prospects
A string of gas finds off the coasts of Mozambique and Tanzania have awakened the interest in East Africa.
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November 14, 2011
BP announce earnings up by 178% in 3Q11
BP, after a difficult 2010, due to its Gulf of Mexico oil spill, posted aggregate earnings of $5.14bn, up a staggering 178% y-o-y.
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November 10, 2011
European crude stocks at 7‐year low
Although Middle East OPEC producers boosted output over the summer virtually none of this extra oil reached the international market.
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November 8, 2011
Russia’s oil output sets another new record
If October’s level of production is maintained for the rest of the year, Russia will be the world’s largest oil producer once again.
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November 7, 2011
Gains in Libyan production pushes OPEC output up
OPEC’s crude output rose last month as gains in Libya and Angola marginally outpaced declines in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria.
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November 4, 2011
Drilling activity and the price of oil
Drilling activity has a clear correlation with the price of oil, though with a time lag.
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November 2, 2011
Eurozone deal provides relief but refining margins still decline
Oil product demand is weak and although crude prices rose after the Euro deal, any rise in product prices will constrain demand further.
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October 31, 2011
Oil price at its highest level since 1864
The CGES predict that oil price will average $97.52/bbl, the third highest average ever recorded and the highest since 1864!
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October 28, 2011
Gas, nuclear and renewable energy in China
The policy target is for renewable sources to account for 20% of China’s total energy requirements by 2020.
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October 25, 2011
Lack of supply keeps oil prices high
The stimulus of lower oil prices may be just what the global economy needs, if the world is to avoid a double‐dip recession.
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October 24, 2011
Cold winter will boost lacklustre oil demand
Cold weather during last winter helped lacklustre oil demand in the OECD to recover in 4Q10 and 1Q11, settling above 46.5 mbpd.
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October 20, 2011
Prices to blame for seven-month decline in US gasoline demand
The combination of high gasoline prices, lower growth and a looming global financial crisis is to blame for declining gasoline demand
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October 20, 2011
Enviromental concerns impact Shale Gas
Public concern about the environmental impacts of shale gas operations is the most serious problem faced by the industry everywhere.
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October 18, 2011
Has OPEC peaked?
OPEC production reached its zenith even before 1980, in Venezuela’s case all the way back in 1970.
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October 17, 2011
As Saudi Arabia cut production, concerns rise for oil supply
Tightness on the supply side is difficult to unpick and will largely depend on Libya’s output and Saudi Arabia’s response to this.
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October 13, 2011
Debunking oil industry myths
Is there a standard model of the oil industry — a paradigm based on certain assumptions that we would be shocked to find did not hold?
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October 11, 2011
Is coal seeing a comeback?
In 2010, global consumption of coal reached a level of about 3.8 billion mtoe, an almost 50% increase compared to 2000.
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October 10, 2011
North Sea output drops below 3 mbpd
After a short-lived rebound, output of North Sea crude declined in August, thus staying below 3 mbpd for four consecutive months.
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October 10, 2011
Two likely developments that could stall oil price drops
There are only two likely developments that could apply significant upward pressure on the oil market in the current circumstances.
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October 6, 2011
First stages of Libyan oil output look promising
Libya began the first steps towards recovery in September, averaging 90,000 bpd, according to preliminary CGES estimates.
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October 5, 2011
Azerbaijan’s output to fall 9% in 2011
The CGES now expects Azerbaijan’s oil production to average 945,000 bpd this year; around 95,000 bpd down on last year’s level
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October 4, 2011
Growth in Asia will prop up global oil demand
Regardless of the economic turmoil enveloping the west, the Asia-Pacific region should maintain relatively high growth rates
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October 3, 2011
Where has Middle Eastern oil been heading?
After oil price shocks of the early 70s Europe reduced its reliance on oil-fired power plants, so that by 2010 its share had dropped to 13%.
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September 29, 2011
Refineries close as Libya and Japan take their toll on crude runs
Events in 2011 led to deteriorating margins, which prompted further refinery closures and lower utilisation.
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September 27, 2011
Crude oil stocks fall despite extra supply
Onshore inventories in the reporting areas fell by 11 mn bbls in July and August, despite a large increase in crude supplies.
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September 26, 2011
Chances of oil prices weakening have “increased significantly”
The distinct possibility of a slide into another recession have increased the chances of oil prices weakening significantly.
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September 22, 2011
Three reasons to be pessimistic about oil demand growth
The CGES are more pessimistic than others about the level of global oil demand in 2Q11 and also for the rest of the year
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September 20, 2011
Why aren’t oil prices falling?
While oil market fundamentals remain tight, oil prices will not fall, no matter how dire the global economic outlook.
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September 19, 2011
IEA reduce global oil demand forecast – but is it enough?
Although the Agency’s latest predictions brings them closer to our own latest estimates, they are not bold enough.
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September 16, 2011
Chinese oil demand will continue to drop for the rest of 2011
Given the economic stresses under which the Chinese economy is operating Chinese crude oil demand growth is likely to weaken further in 2H11.
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September 14, 2011
ExxonMobil steps into BP’s Rosneft partnership for Arctic exploration
ExxonMobil and Rosneft have announced that they are to join forces to explore Rosneft’s Kara Sea acreage.
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September 13, 2011
Norwegian discovery signals ’new life’ in the North Sea
Significant volumes of oil and gas have been found on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
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September 12, 2011
OPEC finally bring oil production up to pre-Libya levels
The OPEC 12 finally managed in August to match the aggregate level of oil production reached in January 2011
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August 31, 2011
Gazprom propose pipeline to connect North and South Korea
Kim Jong-Il is reportedly supporting plans for a gas pipeline to deliver fuel to both North and South Korea.
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August 31, 2011
Where will oil prices head in 2012?
High oil prices have become an economic liability. Here we offer three potential scenarios for where oil price could go.
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August 30, 2011
Release of IEA strategic stocks affects market
There's little doubt that the volume of crude released from the US’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve has affected the local market.
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August 25, 2011
Where now for Libya’s oil?
The toppling of Gaddafi is unlikely to lead to a swift restoration of Libya’s pre-crisis levels of oil production and exports.
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August 23, 2011
Arab Spring will impact oil prices in the long term
Attempts to avert the spread of unrest have led oil-producing countries to pour more money into social spending, raising oil prices
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August 22, 2011
Brent and WTI’s role reversal reaches new heights
Dated Brent, the inferior crude on quality grounds, is now much more expensive than WTI, registering a record-breaking differential
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August 18, 2011
OPEC's failure to act contributes to worsening global economy
OPEC’s slow response to the surge in oil demand that occurred in 2010 was a key factor in propelling Brent upwards by 51%.
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August 17, 2011
Forecasts of incremental oil demand in 2011
The CGES made significant cuts in our estimates of incremental oil demand back in April and we remain less optimistic than others
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August 16, 2011
World economy continues to weigh on oil prices
Until Europe’s leaders alight on a long-term solution the prospect of a return to stable world-wide growth is minimal
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August 15, 2011
A comparison of Dated Brent in 2008 and 2011
Earlier this year, Dated Brent's trajectory was similar to the record-breaking year of 2008 — rising if anything at a faster rate.
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August 11, 2011
African oil production down in 2010
Output is declining in many African non-OPEC countries, so we do not expect any increase in the region’s aggregate output this year.
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August 10, 2011
Oil companies announce profits following high oil prices
The majors’ 2Q11 upstream profits were impressive due to the strong crude oil prices prevailing in 1H11.
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August 10, 2011
Majors experience oil output declines for 2Q11
Despite posting a surge in quarterly profits, many oil majors experienced output declines during the previous quarter.
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August 9, 2011
Caspian oil production grows in 2011
Oil production by Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan increased by 1.2% in the first half of 2011
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August 8, 2011
Oil prices supported by falling global inventory cover
With global demand growth in 2011 looking increasingly weak, the main benchmarks might well come under further downward pressure.
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August 4, 2011
Japan’s energy demand prospects post-Fukushima
As of June 2011, Japan is running only 19 of the 54 reactors that were in operation before the Fukushima disaster.
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August 3, 2011
Non-OPEC oil production outlook for 2012
We expect aggregate non-OPEC oil supplies to increase by 740,000 bpd in 2011 and by 710,000 bpd in 2012
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August 2, 2011
Oil product price forecasts for the four major refining centres
Rotterdam average refining margins collapsed in July as middle distillate crack spreads fell.
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August 1, 2011
Why is the oil market so volatile?
A weak US Dollar and the threat of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico is keeping the oil price where it is.
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July 29, 2011
Can the European industry afford to become so green?
At a time when 20% of the EU’s budget is expended on fighting climate change, billions will now be spent on shoring up the Euro
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July 28, 2011
China’s future energy prospects
By 2015 China will continue to be the world’s largest consumer of coal and for this reason the highest emitter of CO2.
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July 27, 2011
Gasoline prices hit US oil demand
High gasoline prices and a lower growth has pushed US gasoline demand into a five-month negative year-on-year stretch.
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July 25, 2011
US Dollar and failure of IEA strategic stocks push oil prices up
The principal influence on the oil price is the US Dollar, which took a tumble against the Euro following the bail-out of Greece.
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July 21, 2011
Three explanations for the low contribution of EOR
The under-utilisation of the EOR resource and the low expectations for its future contribution could be due to a number of reasons.
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July 19, 2011
Three reasons for high oil prices
After dipping in the wake of the OPEC meeting and IEA announcement, oil prices are now back above the levels they occupied before.
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July 18, 2011
Oil prices will remain flat for the rest of the year
The CGES expect oil prices to remain broadly flat for the rest of the year at around $116/bbl
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July 13, 2011
Azerbaijan’s oil output begins to slip
The CGES estimates production in the first months of 2011 at 980,000 bpd, compared with 1.03 mbpd during the same period last year.
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July 12, 2011
Iran end gasoline subsidies – but to what effect?
Iran is the first country that is tackling the problem that has been facing oil-rich countries for decades
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July 11, 2011
Discounts on Arab heavy by destination
Saudi Arabia have announced discounts for August liftings, but many traders argue that they are not generous enough.
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July 7, 2011
Four recent developments that could impact oil and gas supply
In this article, we list four major events, policy initiatives and field developments that could affect oil and gas supplies.
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July 6, 2011
Oil prices fluctuate following IEA decision
IEA’s move has added an extra layer of uncertainty to the oil market; volatility in the coming weeks could well increase as a result.
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July 5, 2011
Oil product price outlook in the four major refining centres
The Oil Product Price Report is created especially for oil market participants who need reliable forecasts of oil prices, along with expert analysis and comment.
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June 29, 2011
Rise in North American oil supply
In 2011, the CGES expects output from North America to rise by just over 100,000 bpd, with almost all of the increase coming from Canada.
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June 29, 2011
Canadian oil sands output expected to rise by 150,000 bpd this year
The new oil sands production facilities combined with expanded pipeline export capacity is unlocking Canada’s huge potential
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June 28, 2011
South African oil production
South Africa produces a small amount of crude oil, mostly located offshore near the maritime border with Namibia.
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June 27, 2011
Inflation and Chinese oil demand – a tangled web
Globalisation has linked financial and commodity markets in a tangled web of shared hopes and fears.
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June 27, 2011
Brent will be $8/bbl lower in 3Q11
The CGES simulations suggest that Brent in 3Q11 will be $8/bbl lower than it would have been without the IEA’s stock release
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June 24, 2011
IEA to release 60 mn bbls of strategic stocks
The IEA has today announced the release of 60 mn bbls of crude oil from strategic stocks at a rate of 2 mbpd for the next 30 days.
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June 23, 2011
Russia and China fail to reach gas supply deal
Gazprom wants its gas sales to be profitable, while China wants to pay no more than it does for Central Asian gas.
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June 21, 2011
The cost of Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity
Saudi Arabia seems willing to shoulder the burden of maintaining spare output capacity because it enables them to influence oil price
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June 21, 2011
Limits to OPEC’s spare capacity
The problem for OPEC, and a reason for the failure of its recent meeting, is that only a few of its members can actually raise production
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June 20, 2011
Global stagflation leads to diminished oil demand
Our demand/supply balance for 2011 looks likely to yield another substantial drawdown in inventories unless more oil is forthcoming from OPEC
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June 16, 2011
High fuel prices impact US driving season
High prices and faltering growth could push US gasoline demand into negative territory as the driving season unfolds.
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June 16, 2011
Five recent oil and gas drilling discoveries
A comprehensive list providing an overview of the discovery trends and the potential for future global oil and gas supplies.
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June 14, 2011
Iraq’s oil production in 2011
Iraq’s oil production has risen in the first months of 2011, with the CGES estimating a production level of 2.75 mbpd for February.
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June 13, 2011
Can Saudi Arabia supply the oil market by itself?
Saudi Arabia produced 8.95 mbpd last month and could provide the additional 900-1200 tbpd itself, without any help from other members.
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June 9, 2011
Following “worst meeting ever", is OPEC still relevant?
The failure to reach an agreement sends a signal to the market that OPEC is in disarray.
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June 8, 2011
What is the real price of oil?
Oil prices have not passed the peak reached in 2008 and are actually considerably lower than they were in real terms in 1980.
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June 6, 2011
Market needs OPEC to raise output by 1 mbpd
OPEC’s quota-bound members would need to raise their collective output by 1 mbpd to prevent oil prices from rising during the summer.
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June 2, 2011
The new hybrids impact on US gasoline demand
The growing market penetration of hybrid electric vehicles is likely to have a significant impact on US gasoline consumption
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June 2, 2011
Oil product price forecasts for the major refining centres
Higher oil product prices will further limit demand and curtail economic growth, raising the recession in the developed world's vulnerable nations.
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June 2, 2011
Why is OPEC so reluctant to open its taps?
Although Saudi Arabia have boosted their production, this does not seem to have been executed with much enthusiasm.
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May 31, 2011
Weakening Euro and the drop in Brent crude
Shifting sentiments about the viability of the Euro are causing the US Dollar-Euro rate to oscillate, affecting the price of oil accordingly.
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May 27, 2011
European refiners hit by Libyan output cuts
European refiners, who bought at least 80% of Libya’s oil exports, have been badly hit by the cut in their short-haul crude supplies.
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May 26, 2011
IEA threaten strategic stocks as fears grow for OPEC meeting
The oil market needs OPEC to hold a calm, business‐like meeting in Vienna on June 8th in which it can assess the world’s need for its own oil
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May 23, 2011
As Arctic dream is blocked – what’s next for BP?
The collapse of talks between Rosneft and BP will no doubt be a great disappointment to the supermajor’s new CEO, Bob Dudley.
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May 20, 2011
Turmoil hits Yemen’s oil production
Airstrikes, attacks on pipelines and the evacuation of foreign staff have combined to reduce Yemen’s oil production to half its normal level
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May 19, 2011
Renewable energy outlook – will the EU reach its targets?
It is more than likely that the EU will meet its target of generating 20% of its electricity from renewable energy by 2020
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May 19, 2011
Nuclear energy expected to decline by 8.5% by 2015
The share of nuclear in the energy mix is expected to decline by about 8.5%, in large part due to the accident in Japan.
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May 17, 2011
Oil prices recover but remain volatile
Oil prices initially recovered last week after the sharp decline. However ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI prices have since fallen back again.
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May 16, 2011
Why are oil prices so high - and where to next?
Under what conditions will oil prices return to lower levels? At the Platts Crude Oil Markets conference, Leo Drollas gave his view
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May 13, 2011
The truth about Hybrid cars
Impressive growth in the sales of these vehicles since 2004 has led to the number in the US rising to over 1.7 million.
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May 12, 2011
Doubts on Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves
Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves and production capacity were made headlines in February following a Wikileak’s publication
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May 11, 2011
The ten dollar drop
Oil prices have staged a significant recovery after the two main benchmarks declined by roughly $10/bbl on May 5th
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May 10, 2011
Oil price forecast for 2011
Oil prices are expected to stay high in 2011, despite the expected slowdown in global oil demand growth from the levels seen in 2010.
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May 9, 2011
US cheap money policy contributes to rising oil prices
One of the reasons why oil prices began to increase in 4Q10 was because of US Federal Reserve "cheap money policy"
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May 6, 2011
The devil's gold
Like the glittering heavy metal itself, oil can arouse ignoble instincts, metamorphosing from a magnificent endowment into the Devil's gold.
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May 6, 2011
UK pump prices pushing towards £1.40/litre
Pump prices are well above the highs recorded in 2008, when international crude oil prices were at their peak
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May 6, 2011
Osama bin Laden death has little effect on oil prices
The news of Osama Bin Laden’s killing had little discernible impact on the oil market but fears still remain
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May 5, 2011
Oil supply is not keeping pace with demand
Although estimates of oil supply and demand are still being revised, all sources now agree that global oil demand exceeded supply in 2010
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May 4, 2011
Speculators taking advantage of oil price volatility
Speculation intensity indicator hints that more speculators are entering the market to benefit from the increased volatility of oil price
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May 4, 2011
Russian oil and gas production up by 1.5%
April 2011 Russian oil production was up by just over 1.5% according to preliminary figures published by the country’s Ministry of Energy.
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May 4, 2011
Azerbaijan’s alternative gas export options
Download Senior Energy Analyst Julian Lee's presentation from the Caspian Oil & Gas Trading and Transportation Conference in April 2011
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April 28, 2011
Non-OPEC oil production drops
Non-OPEC oil production dropped by 160,000 bpd between February and March 2011, according to figures published in Argus Fundamentals
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April 27, 2011
Is OPEC’s spare capacity adequate?
If Saudi Arabia is thought to be under threat, then the world's spare capacity is no more reliable than a large cube of ice in the desert at midday.
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April 27, 2011
Latest oil price forecasts for the major refining centres
With average prices at the US pump reaching the psychologically critical $4 per US gallon mark demand for the fuel is sluggish.
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April 26, 2011
Election violence in Nigeria puts pressure on crude prices
There is growing concern about the unrest in Nigeria in the wake of the presidential elections.
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April 20, 2011
OPEC "out of touch" with the realities of the oil market
One of the more worrying aspects of recent developments: the divergence between the realities of the oil market and OPEC’s own perceptions.
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April 19, 2011
Is it the end of an era for US gasoline?
The rapid rate of growth in US gasoline demand witnessed over the last 60 years may never again be repeated.
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April 14, 2011
Deep-water drilling resumes in the Gulf of Mexico
The drilling moratorium on the Gulf of Mexico is being lifted by the US authorities, although this is being done on a project-by-project basis.
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April 12, 2011
US oil demand to reach 20 mbpd by 2015
Looking further ahead, we expect oil prices to decrease. As a result there is a gradual rise in oil demand and by 2015, it may reach 20 mbpd.
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April 11, 2011
Saudi Arabia's oil production has dropped by 100,000 bpd
The 100,000-bpd drop in Saudi output was unexpected given Riyadh’s claim that it would meet any shortfall in Libyan exports.
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April 8, 2011
Attacks on Libyan oil fields
Wahid Bourgaihis, head of Arabian Gulf Oil Company (AGOCO), agreed they ‘need NATO to keep a close watch’ to protect the oilfields
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April 7, 2011
Threats to Middle East Energy - Seminar Overview
The thirteen speakers at the recent CGES Seminar: Threats to Middle East Investment – or Opportunities? had varying opinions on the events in the Middle East
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April 4, 2011
Events in Syria and Yemen are "unnerving the market"
The longer the price of oil remains above $100/bbl, the more difficult it will be for oil importing countries to gain control over their budgets.
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March 31, 2011
Updated oil price forecasts for the major refining centres
Libya's demand for oil products will surge when its ports reopen and the country begins to replenish its stocks and rebuild its damaged infrastructure
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March 30, 2011
Budget imposes £2bn tax on North Sea oil
George Osborne has decided to impose £2bn worth of taxes on the UK's North Sea oil industry - in our view, this is a short sighted approach.
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March 29, 2011
Saudi Arabia's target oil price in 2011
Given the Saudi government's likely fiscal expenditures, it is straightforward to find the various oil prices needed to cover it
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March 28, 2011
Oil prices flat despite violence in Syria, Yemen and Libya
Oil prices were fairly flat last week, despite the continuing violence in Libya and elsewhere.
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March 23, 2011
Longer-term implications for Japanese energy
The longer-term repercussions are more difficult to fathom and Japan could struggle to bounce back from this catastrophic event.
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March 22, 2011
Libyan oil output unlikely to recover until next year
For the oil market, the escalation of the conflict could lead to Libyan oil output being disrupted for the rest of this year - possibly longer.
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March 21, 2011
Libyan airstrikes and oil production
The danger for the oil market is that Gaddafi could opt to pursue a scorched earth policy in the areas under his control
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March 17, 2011
Japan and the future for nuclear energy
If plans to expand global nuclear capacity are scaled back, a higher proportion of electricity demand will have to be met by fossil fuels.
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March 16, 2011
Global economic recovery still on shaky ground
Only Saudi Arabia and the IEA can coax the main benchmarks significantly lower. The latter has so far failed to act — an error in our view.
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March 16, 2011
How will the earthquake affect Japan's oil demand?
While damage to refineries would cut Japan’s crude oil requirement, the prolonged closure of its nuclear power stations will have the opposite effect
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March 11, 2011
Middle Eastern unrest: Who will be next?
Energy uncertainty extends far beyond Libya’s borders. Saudi Arabia is surrounded by a triumvirate of countries experiencing unrest.
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March 11, 2011
Massive tidal wave hits Japan
Oil prices have fallen by around $2/bbl in the aftermath of the earthquake on the expectation of a fall in Japanese oil demand
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March 8, 2011
Russia’s estimated oil production for 2011
While most of Russia’s major oil companies will see growth in their domestic production, Lukoil’s output is expected to fall
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March 2, 2011
Latest oil price forecasts for the four major refining centres
Ongoing turmoil in North Africa and unrest in the Middle East is adding an extra element of uncertainty to any longer term forecasts
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March 2, 2011
Can the oil market cope with a prolonged disruption in Libya?
Any extra oil from Saudi Arabia would not be a direct replacement for Libyan output presenting a problem for refiners.
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March 1, 2011
Fear of unrest in Saudi Arabia drives futures prices upwards
The political repercussions of the widespread protests in the Middle East will no doubt still be up for discussion many years from now.
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February 23, 2011
Geopolitical tremors in the Middle East
Egypt may be experiencing a period of relative calm after Mubarak's departure, but his overthrow has only emboldened dissenters in Libya.
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February 22, 2011
How will unrest in Libya affect long-term oil price?
In the longer term after a change of regime, oil production can drop rapidly and take years to recover
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February 15, 2011
Is a global oil supply crisis imminent?
It is risky to assume that the growth in world oil production will continue forever.
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February 15, 2011
Questioning the benchmarks
Do the main oil price benchmarks WTI, Dated Brent and the Oman/Dubai average reflect best the true state of the global oil market?
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February 9, 2011
The revolutionary road: how Egypt will affect oil price
While the speed of the unfolding unrest in Egypt has been breathtaking, oil price’s shift beyond $100/bbl in response to these events is less surprising
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February 8, 2011
Oil price forecasts for the four major refining centres
The Oil Product Price Report is created especially for oil market participants who need reliable forecasts of oil prices, along with expert analysis and comment.
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February 2, 2011
Unrest in Egypt pushes Brent above $100/bbl
The continuing unrest in Egypt has pushed Brent crude oil prices above $100/bbl for the first time for more than two years.
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February 2, 2011
Will OPEC provide relief for the tight oil market?
Only OPEC, in its role as the world’s residual supplier, can provide relief for this tight oil market - but will its response be sufficient?
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January 27, 2011
Oil prices are likely to continue to rise in 2011
Without more crude from OPEC oil prices will continue to rise in 2011. The extent of the increase will depend on how robust oil demand growth turns out to be.
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January 25, 2011
Iraq's oil production expectations from the agreements with foreign companies
The Iraqi government has reached agreements with international oil/gas companies for developing a number of oil and gas fields.
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January 25, 2011
Rise in oil prices leading to inflation
One of the more worrying consequences of the rise in oil prices has been increasing rates of inflation.
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January 19, 2011
Is the current price of oil sustainable?
The oil market at the beginning of 2011 appears to be on a broadly similar course to the one set at the beginning of 2008.
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January 18, 2011
India's demand for oil increases
India’s economy is expected to grow at a rate of 7% per annum over the next five years, meaning its demand for energy will also increase.
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January 18, 2011
US gasoline demand weak in 2010
Although in 2010 US gasoline demand did increase year-on-year on a monthly basis, the recovery overall was somewhat weak
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January 10, 2011
Will the Eurozone’s sovereign debt problems undermine the buoyant oil market?
One of our main concerns at the end of 2010 was that the severity of the Eurozone’s sovereign debt problems could intensify this year.
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January 5, 2011
Russia’s oil production set a new post-Soviet record in 2010
Russia’s oil production will average more than 10 mbpd in 2010, setting a new post-Soviet record.
2010
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December 31, 2010
CPC expansion to go ahead
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has finally passed the Final Investment Decision on the expansion of the capacity of their pipeline
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December 22, 2010
Three reasons for the tightening oil market
The main reason for rising oil prices is the tightening of the physical oil market and our conclusion is based on three developments.
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December 21, 2010
Price of crude a major threat to oil market
One major threat as far as the oil market is concerned is the price of a barrel of crude.
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December 20, 2010
The outlook for oil supply remains hopeful
The world’s known oil reserves are large enough to preclude an oil supply shortage. In addition, more oil remains to be discovered
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December 14, 2010
Upward revision of Iraq’s oil reserves
The rise in Iraq’s total reserves appears reasonable; however, in our view the increases that were announced for some of the fields are difficult to explain.
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December 14, 2010
Will US tax cuts affect oil price?
The US government’s decision to push through tax cuts has convinced many that next year the country’s GDP growth will be stronger than previously thought
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December 14, 2010
A closer look at China’s oil demand prospects
China’s GDP growth is unlikely to average less than 8% annually over the next five years and as a result the country’s oil demand will also increase rapidly.
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December 9, 2010
Shale gas production in the US
The increase in shale gas over the last few years has led to a significant decline in US gas imports and in the price of natural gas.
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December 9, 2010
The end of oil?
Oil is a finite resource; ‘The end’ will come one day and we have to give credit to Peak theorists who keep warning us about this
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December 7, 2010
The increasing dominance of financial participants in the oil futures market
The influence of investors’ expectations was a central theme of the CGES’34th Executive Retreat on December 1st and 2nd
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December 2, 2010
Does the world need Iraq’s oil?
We cannot take it for granted that the world will need all of the future oil that Iraq is planning to produce
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December 2, 2010
Did OPEC exaggerate oil reserves in the 1980s?
Most OPEC countries announced increases in their oil reserves (about 300 bn bbls)which were intended to secure a higher oil production quota
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November 30, 2010
The CGES believes oil demand will grow by 1.3 mbpd in 2011
Oil demand will grow by 1.3 mbpd in 2011, which in view of a 1-mbpd increase in non-OPEC supplies and OPEC NGLs next year, according to our estimates, means that the call on OPEC will rise by 300,000 bpd
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November 26, 2010
Oil Policies, Oil Myths by Fadhil J Chalabi
Find out more about CGES Executive Director Fadhil J Chalabi’s latest book Oil Policies, Oil Myths: Observations of an OPEC Insider
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November 24, 2010
CGES November Oil Market View
There have been plenty of macroeconomic developments that have affected oil prices in the past four weeks. In early Nov, the US Federal Reserve announced... a second round of quantitative easing.
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November 24, 2010
Don't expect oil prices to fall much below $80/bbl
Just as we were wary about the speed of the recent oil price rise, we also believe it would be a mistake to expect oil prices to fall much below $80/bbl
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November 23, 2010
Turkmenistan seeks new gas buyers
With the collapse in gas exports to Russia, a slower than expected build-up in deliveries to China limited sales to Iran, Turkmenistan needs to secure new gas export deals...
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November 19, 2010
The Cancun Agreement and the Copenhagen Accord
The 16th Meeting of Parties of the UNFCCC (Cop 16) was a success in that, unlike Cop 15 at Copenhagen last year, agreement was reached on a number of important issues.
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November 18, 2010
The emissions market in 2010
The emissions market faces an uncertain future in the absence of a new international emissions reduction agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol
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November 17, 2010
IATA Aviation Fuel Forum
Senior Energy Analyst Julian Lee was guest speaker at the IATA Aviation Fuel Forum in Prague on the 11th November 2010.
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November 10, 2010
Emissions trading outside Europe
In November 2009 New Zealand’s parliament passed into law the Climate Change Response Amendment which mandated the first economy-wide ETS outside Europe.
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November 10, 2010
QE2 and oil prices
...the only further option to help the US economy recover was quantitative easing, the modern version of printing money. The US’ first bout of QE amounted to a gargantuan $1.7 trillion
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November 9, 2010
World oil demand has been surprisingly buoyant in 2010
As a result of these regional demand trends, we expect world oil demand to grow by 6.5 mbpd in the five-year period to 2015, a much larger increase than the growth of 2.3 mbpd from 2005 to 2010.
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November 9, 2010
Emissions trends in the EU ETS
Emissions in energy-intensive industries, which were hardest hit in the recession, fell most sharply in 2009
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November 9, 2010
Power sector in the EU – emissions reduction and future investment
One of the most important influences of the ETS has been on the structure and investment decisions of the large electricity-producing companies.
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November 8, 2010
The EU Emissions Trading Scheme Phase 3 2013-2020
The sectors included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme will be required to reduce their GHG emissions by at least 20% below 2005 levels by 2020.
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November 7, 2010
The problems of recycled CERs
A potential loophole for double-counting exists in the CDM market, if developing countries are required in any future global deal to monitor, report and even cap emissions.
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November 5, 2010
Demand and supply in the Kyoto market
The balance of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ recognised in the treaty has changed substantially since it was put together 13 years ago.
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November 3, 2010
Hedge fund activity and oil prices
There has been a surge of money once again into hedge funds. During the last quarter $120bn poured in, taking the funds under management to $1.8 trillion.
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November 1, 2010
Product Price Report highlights
The US economic recovery remains uncertain and if the coming winter is warmer than usual, USGC average refining margins are unlikely to increase before next year.
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October 28, 2010
Global oil market outlook - Commodities Week
Dr Leo Drollas was a guest speaker at World Commodities Week 2010 on 7th October 2010.
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October 27, 2010
CGES October Oil Market View
The main crude benchmarks have broken above $80/bbl, abandoning the range that was a feature of the oil market for 12 or so months.
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October 26, 2010
Future production estimates using Hubbert Curve
A review of the oil production potential of Brazil, in particular with reference to the likely impact of the country’s huge subsalt discoveries.
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October 25, 2010
Prospects for Japanese oil demand
Japan has no indigenous production so needs to import approximately 80% of its energy requirements
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October 12, 2010
Oil — key issues
Dr Leo Drollas was a guest speaker at the 3rd International Shipping & Marine Services Forum for Capital Link on 12th October 2010.
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October 7, 2010
The outlook for oil prices
Dr Leo Drollas was a guest speaker at the World Low Cost Airlines Congress 2010 at Sofitel Hotel London, Heathrow, on the 29th September 2010.
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October 7, 2010
Changes in Oil Prices and the Impact on Gas
Julian Lee was a guest speaker at the Argus European Natural Gas/LNG Trading on the 7th October 2010.
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October 6, 2010
Oil costs and prices
The consensus view these days is that the cost of producing oil and gas in the world has reached very high levels.
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October 1, 2010
Russian gas exports to China move a (small) step closer
Gazprom and China’s CNPC have signed an expanded set of terms for gas supplies from Russia to China
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September 23, 2010
September Market Summary
Oil market analysis for September 2010. This oil report will explore China's oil demand, offshore crude oil stocks and onshore crude oil stocks.
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September 23, 2010
September Oil Market Prospects
Crude oil continues to trade in a relatively narrow range, with the price of OPEC’s Reference Basket fluctuating between $70 and $80/bbl...
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September 10, 2010
The East Africa question
East Africa’s oil and gas potential is in the spotlight after a US firm made the first oil discovery off the eastern coast of the continent
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September 9, 2010
BP’s Macondo investigation spreads the blame
BP has accepted partial responsibility for the blowout of the Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico on the 20th of April.
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September 6, 2010
August Oil Market Forecast and Analysis
Since early October 2010 benchmark crude oil prices have been showing no sign of breaking decisively in either direction
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September 1, 2010
US' Davy Jones discovery offers new hope for oil exploration
One of the most exciting oil/gas discoveries this year is the Davy Jones, situated just 10 miles off the coast of Louisiana in 20 feet of water.
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August 31, 2010
CGES August Oil Market View
Given that global economic growth will slow in 2010, the CGES expects the oil price to weaken somewhat between now and the end of year
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August 17, 2010
Australia's LNG
Australia is an important LNG exporter that is currently home to one of the biggest LNG ventures in the world, the North West Shelf (NWS) LNG project.
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August 16, 2010
Unconventional gas in Russia
Russia’s Gazprom has dismissed attempts by European countries to emulate the unconventional gas successes of the US
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August 10, 2010
Nord Stream begins pipelaying
The Nord Stream consortium has begun laying the first of its two parallel gas pipelines beneath the Baltic Sea
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August 5, 2010
An ultra cautious approach to the hurricane season
The US Meteorological Society were all predicting that 2010 would see a particularly active hurricane season
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August 3, 2010
Unconventional gas outside the US
Outside North America exploration and mapping of unconventional gas reserves is a long way behind the US.
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August 2, 2010
The role of unconventional gas in US supply
The EIA puts end-2008 reserves of natural gas in the US at 6.9 tcm - the highest level since records began
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July 29, 2010
The Gulf of Mexico well blowout & future world oil supplies
Oil companies and service companies have announced they will increase their research for deep offshore operations in a bid to improve safety.
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July 28, 2010
CGES Monthly Oil Market View
The past month held few surprises as far as the oil price was concerned, with the main benchmarks continuing to trade within the $70-80/bbl corridor that has been a feature of the second quarter of 2010.
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July 26, 2010
Natural gas — a market in transition
The global gas market is over-supplied, with production now exceeding demand and spot prices low
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July 22, 2010
Monthly Oil Report - Market Summary July 2010
A 300,000-bpd build in reported onshore stocks of crude and products last month left them just 5 mn bbls below last year’s record highs.
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July 22, 2010
What is Shale gas?
In order for the gas to be released in commercially-viable quantities, the shale must have large natural fractures, which can be accessed by drilling, or such fractures must be created.
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July 21, 2010
What is unconventional gas?
Unconventional gas reserves are situated in rocks of low permeability, which makes the gas difficult to access.
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July 21, 2010
The LNG market
The world gas market has changed radically because of burgeoning LNG trade which has made natural gas a much more tradeable commodity between regions.
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July 20, 2010
Too many pipelines?
Gazprom plans to build five major offshore and ten major onshore pipelines over the coming decade, with a combined length of around 20,000 km. Can Gazprom really complete all the pipelines it is planning to build?
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July 5, 2010
The cost of the Macondo well disaster
The blowout at the Macondo well is a potential catastrophe for those whose livelihoods have been impacted.
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July 5, 2010
Africa Oil & Gas Sourcebook 2010: Cameroon
Cameroon’s oil production peaked in the mid-1980s at 180,000 bpd, but has since fallen, reaching its lowest point in 2003
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June 24, 2010
Saudi Arabia and Iraq – the tension will mount
Dr Leo Drollas was one of the speakers at the CGES' One-day Seminar on Iraq, Gulf Oil and the World Oil Market on 24th June 2010.
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June 14, 2010
Prospects for German oil demand
Germany’s oil consumption is currently 2.4 mbpd, which represents about 40% of the country’s total energy demand.
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June 10, 2010
The outlook for wind & solar energy
Over the past decade or so it has been wind and solar energy that have been growing fastest in terms of power generation
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June 8, 2010
South Korean oil demand
South Korea is poorly off in terms of indigenous energy sources and it has become the world’s fifth largest importer of oil
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June 2, 2010
South East Europe – Energy Security or Political Expediency?
A presentation by Dr Takin on importing gas and oil from the Former Soviet Union and the Middle East
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June 2, 2010
Non-OPEC output recovery continues
Unexpected growth in non-OPEC crude output is changing the structure of global oil supply as the world economy recovers
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May 28, 2010
The outlook for oil
Dr Leo Drollas gave a presentation for Danske Bank in Copenhagen, on the 28th May 2010.
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May 27, 2010
A tale of two pipelines – CPC and Iskene-Kuryk
Kazakhstan needs additional pipeline capacity to export the incremental volumes of production expected over the coming decade.
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May 3, 2010
Deep waters indeed
The cost of the operation to cap the well and clean up the oil spill is said to have cost BP over $750 million thus far and the cost counters continue to click away at a furious rate.
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April 29, 2010
Convenience yield — helping to shape oil’s forward curve
The shape of the forward curve is an important indicator of the state of the oil market, sloping downwards when the market is tight and rising when oil is abundant.
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March 30, 2010
Iraq’s agreements with foreign oil companies
In 2009, Iraq awarded ten major service contracts to foreign oil companies. According to output targets, Iraq could be producing 11 mbpd of oil from these projects alone.
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March 26, 2010
Brazil’s Subsalt Offshore Story
Worldwide attention has recently focused on the impressive volumes of oil and gas discovered at a depth of about 6 kilometres offshore Brazil.
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March 26, 2010
Estimating Brazil’s future crude oil production
A simple rule of thumb suggests that Brazil’s oil production cannot increase any further and that the country’s crude oil production has passed its ‘peak’.
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March 24, 2010
Natural gas and ethanol in Brazil
Brazilian oil production is not limited to crude oil alone. Brazil has also been increasing the production of natural gas and ethanol.
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March 24, 2010
The future call on OPEC’s oil
Dr Leo Drollas was one of the speakers at the CGES' One-day Seminar on 'Iraq and the world oil order' on 24th March 2010.
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March 22, 2010
Offshore Brazil and West Africa
In the last few decades, extensive geological and geophysical research has confirmed the break-up and the separation of the continents and the opening up of the oceans.
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March 16, 2010
Azerbaijan launches the next phase of its oil development
Azerbaijan has sanctioned the $6 bn Chirag Oil Project, the next phase of the development of oilfields that are the mainstay of the country’s oil production.
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March 3, 2010
The CFTC’s efforts to contain speculation in energy
In 2009 the CFTC began to put together legislation it believed would increase transparency in the commodity futures markets.
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February 28, 2010
The effect of the changing US dollar exchange rate
Although the value of the Dollar rose sharply in 2008, it fell back again in 2009 sparing buyers paying for their oil in Euros
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February 26, 2010
Global oil market outlook
Dr Leo Drollas was a guest speaker at the IEA/IEEJ Forum on Global Oil Market Challenges in Tokyo, on the 26th February 2010.
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February 3, 2010
Winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere and its effect on demand effect on demand
Oil demand and prices have both been higher than otherwise would have been the case with the global economy just emerging from a deep recession
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February 2, 2010
What are OPEC NGLs?
Unlike OPEC crude oil production ‘OPEC NGLS and other’ are a much more opaque source of oil supply involving less familiar hydrocarbons that lurk around the periphery of the oil market
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February 1, 2010
Nigerian output may fall after MEND suspends its ceasefire
MEND has announced the ending of the ceasefire, warning oil companies operating in the Niger Delta to expect an ‘all-out onslaught’ against their operations
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January 28, 2010
World oil market outlook
Dr Leo Drollas was a guest speaker at the Global Risk Management Seminar at the Radisson Blue Portman Hotel, London, on the 29th January 2010.
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January 18, 2010
Saudi Arabia’s fiscal balances and target oil price for 2010
Despite a 14% over-spend against budget in 2010, Saudi state revenues should be robust enough to prevent the fiscal deficit from exceeding $4 bn
2009
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December 14, 2009
Hedging shipping's fuel costs
Since 1987 oil prices have been extremely volatile, ranging from lows of $11/bbl (for front month WTI) in December 1998 to a record high of $134/bbl in June 2008
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December 10, 2009
The outlook for FSU oil production
At the end of the year the outlook for Russian oil production in 2009 was almost universally gloomy
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December 9, 2009
Russia’s ESPO pipeline gears up for operation
Russia is set to begin exports from its new Pacific Ocean terminal at the end of East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline system.
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December 3, 2009
China’s search for energy security
Many in China view the current economic crisis as an opportunity for the country to secure energy supplies
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December 2, 2009
Colombia’s role in the struggle to raise supply
Download Senior Energy Analyst Julian Lee’s Presentation from the Oil and Gas Colombian Congress 2009.
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December 2, 2009
West African oil production could pose a threat to OPEC compliance in 2010
The two West African members of OPEC could give the Organisation a major headache next year as it seeks to respond to only a gradual improvement in global oil demand.
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December 1, 2009
The key to the puzzle
From January '09 onwards it had become clear that the world was experiencing the worst recession since the 1930s.
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November 25, 2009
Continued growth in FSU oil production?
Julian Lee's presentation on present and future oil production in for Former Soviet Union from the 2009 CGES Executive Retreat.
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November 18, 2009
The Oil Price Puzzle
In November, Leo Drollas spoke about oil price at CGES 33rd Annual Executive Retreat. Download his presentation now.
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November 17, 2009
Azerbaijan’s alternatives
As it continues to face difficulties in agreeing transit terms and gas prices with Turkey, Azerbaijan is casting around for alternative ways of exporting its gas.
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November 10, 2009
Canada’s oil sands resources
Canada's oil sands industry has taken off in recent years due to impressive technological advances and concerns about energy security in the USA.
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November 1, 2009
A tale of two gas deals
Over the past month Russia has signed two gas deals with neighbouring countries, one with China and another with Azerbaijan.
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October 14, 2009
Faltering non-OPEC oil supplies
One of the key questions that has exercised the investing community is the extent to which faltering non-OPEC oil supplies were responsible for the dramatic rise in the price of oil.
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October 13, 2009
The Kyoto Protocol and the flexible mechanisms
The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the first international, legally binding agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
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October 8, 2009
Trans-Caspian pipeline: Build it and we will come
Turkmenistan has repeated its interest in exporting its gas to Europe via a trans-Caspian pipeline, but has laid the responsibility for moving the gas on the shoulders of the buyers.
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October 1, 2009
Limiting carbon dioxide emissions — the future for oil
On December 7th, UN climate negotiations will begin in Copenhagen under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
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September 29, 2009
Russia leaves door ajar for more foreign investment
Russian officials have been making noises about foreign investment, only a year after passing legislation aimed at restricting the input of overseas firms.
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September 25, 2009
Kazakhstan’s Caspian transport squeeze
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are slowly moving forward with their planned trans-Caspian oil transportation project, but uncertainties still remain
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September 9, 2009
Panama pipeline reversal opens a new route to Pacific markets
The reversal of the 800,000-bpd trans-Panama oil pipeline has opened up a new route for the delivery of Atlantic Basin crude oil to markets in the Asia/Pacific region
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September 7, 2009
Oil stocks have no bearing on the oil price
"Oil stocks have no bearing on the oil price" - these words from the Saudi oil minister must have raised quite a few eyebrows
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September 7, 2009
Getting Turkmenistan’s gas to Europe
Delivering gas from Turkmenistan to Europe could prove a problem. There are three possible routes; via Russia, via Iran, or across the Caspian Sea. But none are an obvious choice.
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September 2, 2009
OECD oil demand— "for better or for worse ... in sickness and in health"
OECD remains the Organisation’s largest market and important changes are taking place there, particularly in the seasonal pattern of oil consumption.
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September 2, 2009
Renewed border dispute threatens European dream of Turkmenistan’s gas
Hopes that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan would soon resolve their undefined offshore border have been dashed – at least for now.
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August 6, 2009
Rescuing Russia-Europe gas relations
The mutual trust that underpins the gas trading relationship between Russia and Europe appears to be coming under increasing strain from both sides.
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August 4, 2009
Bulgaria sparks concern over Burgas-Alexandroupolis and South Stream pipelines
The landslide election victory by Bulgaria’s centre-right GERB party sparked concerns over the future of the Burgas-Alexandroupolis and South Stream pipelines
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July 24, 2009
Prospects for the Niger Delta after the ceasefire
The 60-day ceasefire means another hiatus in the militant attacks that have crippled Nigeria’s oil industry over the past two and a half years.
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July 15, 2009
Kazakhstan strengthens Chinese links
The construction of two major new pipelines across the territory of Kazakhstan has been completed, linking the Central Asian oil and gas producer more closely to China.
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July 3, 2009
Nabucco death-knell? Not yet
Azerbaijan has signed a contract to start gas deliveries to Russia at the beginning of 2010. Initial volumes will be modest, but are envisaged to increase over time.
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July 2, 2009
Nabucco signed and sealed, but not yet delivered
The Nabucco pipeline transit countries have signed an inter-governmental agreement guaranteeing a single standard tariff methodology across all five countries.
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June 26, 2009
Russia’s LNG plans
Russia is seeking to diversify its gas exports and LNG projects are set to play an increasing role in the mix as pipeline exports to China and South Korea have run into difficulties.
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June 25, 2009
How real is Gazprom’s change of direction?
Russia appears to be altering its priorities for future gas development away from its traditional markets in Europe.
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June 19, 2009
Pipeline politics in Turkmenistan
Russia and Turkmenistan have had a spectacular falling-out, caused by an explosion on one of the strings of the CAC pipelines
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June 18, 2009
Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico
Oil production from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) promises to be an increasingly important source of non-OPEC output in the coming years.
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June 11, 2009
Cutting out the middlemen
Russia’s post-Soviet pipeline policy has taken another step forwards with the start of construction of an oil pipeline to bypass Belarus and Poland.
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June 8, 2009
Russia’s oil output is on the rise again
The collapse in Russian oil production anticipated by some in 2009 has not materialised and the country’s output is on the rise once again.
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June 3, 2009
Global Oil Supply – Taking Stock
World oil supply has become increasingly rigid in recent years, adding to price volatility. Although OPEC is quick to cut output when oil prices fall, the organisation now seems reluctant to boost output when oil prices rise.
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June 3, 2009
North American Oil Supply - Taking Stock
Oil supplies from North America are expected to recover slightly in 2009 after last year’s unexpectedly large decline.
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June 3, 2009
Latin American Oil Supply - Taking Stock
Oil production in Latin America is expected to rise strongly this year, as delayed offshore projects in Brazil finally deliver on their promises and output continues to increase in Colombia.
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June 3, 2009
European Oil Supply - Taking Stock
Oil production in Europe remains firmly in decline, although average annual decline rates have eased to 4% a year over the past two years
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June 3, 2009
Russian Oil Supply - Taking Stock
Most forecasters had expected growth of at least 400,000 bpd as output rose in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia
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June 3, 2009
African Oil Supply – Taking Stock
Oil production from the non-OPEC countries of the continent of Africa was much lower than expected in 2008.
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June 3, 2009
Asia-Pacific Oil Supply - Taking Stock
Oil production in the Asia-Pacific region was also lower than expected last year, rising by only 25,000 bpd.
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May 25, 2009
Oil price increases and the current recession
How much of an impact did the surging oil prices between 2004 and mid-2008 have on the subsequent dramatic slowdown of the global economy?
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May 17, 2009
OECD company stock cover and Dated Brent
Upon comparing stock cover and oil prices over time we observe that they are not always inversely correlated, as the theory suggests.
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May 15, 2009
Venezuela expropriates oil service companies
Venezuela moved quickly to begin expropriating oil service companies operating in Lake Maracaibo in a response to PdVSA’s mounting debts
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May 12, 2009
Nabucco – the fat lady has yet to sing
As every opera lover knows, the opera ain’t over ’til the fat lady sings, and there may be plenty of arias still to come for the Nabucco gas pipeline.
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May 1, 2009
It’s official: CO2 is now a pollutant
The US' Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has just decreed that CO2is henceforth to be known officially as a pollutant
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April 28, 2009
Win some, lose some? – Russia’s shifting gas relations
Russia’s gas relationships with neighbouring states appear to be going through a period of almost unprecedented change.
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April 14, 2009
Kuwait’s political system and its oil output goals
Events in the oil industry have focused attention on the merits of Kuwait’s political system, after the cancellation of the proposed 615,000-bpd al-Zour refinery.
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April 10, 2009
The global refining system: end of an era or just a cyclical low?
While refiners can plan for alterations in product specifications, shifts in the demand barrel are much more difficult to predict and it can take several years for the industry to adjust.
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April 7, 2009
Everyone wants Azerbaijan’s gas
Azerbaijan’s gas production is set to soar. But how it will get to Europe is far from certain, with at least five pipelines vying to carry Azerbaijani gas.
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March 16, 2009
Loans-for-shares 2009-style
The ‘loans-for-shares’ scheme of the mid-1990s is today is working in reverse, with state-owned Sberbank taking control of private oil company assets pledged as collateral for loans that the companies cannot repay.
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March 9, 2009
The complications of the KCTS
Intended to carry oil from Kashagan, KCTS involves more governments, more companies and a greater distance than the earlier project.
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March 9, 2009
Ending Iran’s energy subsidies?
President Ahmadinejad has proposed a subsidies bill that would dramatically alter energy prices in Iran.
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March 2, 2009
Central Asia ties its gas future firmly to Russia
Central Asian gas producers appear to be tying their future expansion plans firmly to international markets via Russia.
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February 27, 2009
Russia’s changing attitude towards the CPC pipeline
After years of blocking the expansion of the CPC pipeline, the Russian government’s attitude has recently shifted through 180˚.
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February 27, 2009
Reducing US Gasoline Consumption
Soon after taking office, President Barack Obama called for the US to rid itself of its dependence on foreign oil.
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January 29, 2009
Russia-Ukraine gas dispute resurfaces as 2009 commences
Russia and Ukraine have descended into conflict over gas deliveries and the dispute is now disrupting gas supplies to Gazprom’s customers in Europe.
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January 29, 2009
Russia-EU gas relations face uncertain times
Russia’s reputation as a reliable supplier of gas has been seriously dented by its recent standoff with Ukraine
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January 16, 2009
Angola – OPEC’s newest member
On January the 1st 2009 the OPEC presidency rotated to the Organisation’s newest member, Angola, two years after its application to join was approved.
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January 12, 2009
The longer-term implications of the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute
Russia and Ukraine continue to squabble over who is responsible for shutting off the bulk of the gas supplies from Russia to Europe
2008
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December 17, 2008
The consequences of conflict with Iran
Although Iran's nuclear weapons programme was put on hold back in 2003, Iran’s continuing interest in the enrichment of nuclear fuel remains a serious geopolitical issue.
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November 21, 2008
UK pump prices and the tax wedge
Transport fuels are heavily taxed in Europe and the tax burden on such fuels in the United Kingdom is heavier than elsewhere in the old continent
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October 29, 2008
The presidential contenders' policies and their impact on US oil demand
The race for the White House over the past twelve or so months has been defined by several major themes that reflect the concerns of the US electorate.
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October 13, 2008
Airlines and fuel hedging — what might have been
The steep decline in oil prices from July '08 to mid-September '08 has been a double-edged sword for many airlines.
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September 29, 2008
Gustav and Ike pack a punch
Just as happened three years ago, the first major storm of the year to hit the oil-producing area of the Gulf of Mexico and the coastal refining centre was chased by a second storm, following a more westerly course.
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July 17, 2008
Is US Dollar weakness really to blame for rising oil prices?
OPEC President Chekib Khelil would have us believe that it is the falling value of the US Dollar rather than a prolonged shortage of supply, that is the root cause of soaring oil prices.
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July 9, 2008
The expansion of Kazakhstan’s oil export capacity begins
In the last few weeks there have been reports of progress on almost every one of Kazakhstan’s oil export projects.
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July 2, 2008
Global spare oil production capacity revisited
The likely level of global spare oil production capacity in the months ahead is one of the key topics to keep an eye on.
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June 25, 2008
Oil demand trends 1986-2007
Over the whole period since 1986 global oil consumption grew by 1.7% per annum or 1.17 mbpd each year, a time during which the price of oil averaged $33/bbl in constant '07 US dollars.
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June 9, 2008
Nigeria slips from top African spot
Over the past two months Nigeria has lost its position as Africa’s largest oil producer to fellow OPEC member Angola
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June 5, 2008
World oil demand trends 1986-2007
Oil demand is very much the flavour of the month these days because of the ultra high level reached by crude oil prices.
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June 2, 2008
The debate about Saudi Arabia’s oil potential still continues
The debate about Saudi Arabia’s true ability to produce oil lies within the much wider question of the world’s oil potential
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May 20, 2008
Saudi Arabia’s disappearing output increase
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announced that it would increase oil production by 300,000 bpd, taking the country’s production level to 9.45 mbpd in June.
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May 1, 2008
Costs and the price of oil
In this particular market watch piece we try to ascertain whether or not the oil industry is indeed experiencing further sharp increases in its cost structure.
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May 1, 2008
Oil depletion in 2007
With oil prices currently around $130/bbl and showing scant sign of retreating below this iconic level, the question on many people’s lips is whether we're entering the final phase of the oil industry?
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April 18, 2008
Iraq’s technical service agreements— a stopgap measure?
The decision to work with certain IOCs on selected oilfields, on the basis of technical support agreements (TSAs) with the aim of increasing the productive capacity of each field was quite logical.
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April 16, 2008
Saudi Arabia’s push downstream
Faced with world demand for lighter oil products, it behooves Saudi Arabia to capture a larger share of the world’s trade in oil products by increasing its refining capacity with an export orientation.
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April 10, 2008
Raising the capacity to export Caspian crude
Azerbaijan expects to export oil across its territory but it's unclear how much this will benefit the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea
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March 4, 2008
The reality of Russia’s oil output growth
Russia’s oil production increased by around 205,000 bpd in 2007, growing by 2.1% over the previous year’s output level.
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February 13, 2008
Saudi Arabia’s budgets for 2007 and 2008
When the Saudi budget for a specific year is published — usually in the preceding December — a lot of essential information is missing.
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February 12, 2008
Another stream to muddy the waters
Another proposed gas pipeline from the former Soviet Union to Europe has recently hit the headlines after Ukraine’s prime minister urged the EU to back the route that would run from the Caspian Sea to Europe via Ukraine.
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January 19, 2008
Kashagan — a just settlement?
The dust has settled, disaster has been avoided and work goes on in the North Caspian to develop the huge Kashagan oilfield.
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January 4, 2008
Iraq Oil: The Big Unknown
Although it is widely acknowledged that Iraq is very rich in oil, what is actually known of the country’s oil reserves amounts to only a part of its real oil potential.
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January 1, 2008
OPEC Capacity
Those OPEC member-countries that are able to do so are seeking to expand their oil production capacity to take advantage of currently high oil prices.
2007
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December 20, 2007
Justifying $100/bbl oil
The Qatari oil minister opined recently that "if we take into account inflation, the real and fair price for oil should be more than $100/bbl"
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November 29, 2007
The Dolphin Project: the beginnings of an Arab natural gas grid
Although the Dolphin project is Qatar’s first major pipeline-based gas export project, it was initiated by the United Arab Emirates’ Offsets Group (UOG) to supply Qatari gas to the UAE and Oman.
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October 9, 2007
Saudi oil policy
What part did Saudi Arabia — OPEC’s major producer and policy leader — play in causing the oil price to rebound?
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August 29, 2007
Ratifying Iraq’s new oil and gas law
The US has been pressurising Iraq to ratify the country’s new oil and gas law by September 2007.
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June 28, 2007
Stock changes and OPEC
After years of paying perfunctory attention to oil inventories, OPEC has become an avid watcher of oil stocks.
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May 27, 2007
Oil recovery factors in Saudi Arabia
The recovery factor issue is often raised in debates on oil supplies from Saudi Arabia and the other oil producing countries of the Middle East.
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May 8, 2007
The outlook remains bleak for Nigerian oil production
A lull in the attacks on oil production facilities had raised hopes that the change in leadership in Abuja might open the way to a partial restoration of Nigeria’s shut-in oil production capacity.
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April 10, 2007
Iraq’a oil and gas law
In light of the prevailing geopolitical realities and facing diminishing oil and gas prospects outside OPEC, the world’s appetite for Iraqi oil has grown considerably
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January 16, 2007
Additions to oil reserves in 2006
On the occasion of the OGJ’s publication of its 2006 crude oil production estimates, the CGES has examined closely the latest set of OGJ data in the hope of discerning interesting trends.
2006
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May 1, 2006
Nigeria’s oil — hopes and expectations
Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil producer and with proven reserves of at least 35 billion barrels it seems well placed to maintain its position among the world’s top ten oil producing nations.
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March 3, 2006
Russia’s East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline
In late May, Transneft’s President presented Vladimir Putin with a proposed new route for the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean crude oil pipeline.
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March 1, 2006
Incremental oil demand, non-OPEC supplies and the need for additional OPEC oil
One of the key factors influencing the price of oil is the degree of ease, or difficulty for that matter, with which OPEC — the world’s marginal supplier — is able to meet the demand for its oil.
2005
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December 13, 2005
Hybrids will make a difference to US Gasoline consumption, but when?
By 2015 30-35% of all US car sales will be hybrids. Since these vehicles are more efficient than their gasoline-fuelled equivalents, they will have a big impact on future US gasoline consumption, but by when?
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December 6, 2005
Asian policy responses to the high price of oil
It is self-evidently true that the price of oil affects the economy of every single country in the world.
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November 9, 2005
Canada’s Oil Sands and China’s demand
Put simply, it seems only natural that there is a growing Chinese involvement in Canada’s oil sands.
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March 1, 2005
Gas to Liquids: The future for Gas?
Gas-to-liquids is suddenly very much in the news, with announcements of a series of commercial plants being built in Qatar.
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March 1, 2005
China's demand for oil
What is the outlook for China’s demand for oil over the coming years? This question is of particular significance in view of the dramatic impact that surging Chinese demand had on the oil market in 2004.
2003
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July 2, 2003
The US Gas Market in Crisis
The United States appears to have woken up just recently to the fact that high gas as well as oil prices are threatening the incipient economic recovery.
2002
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April 4, 2002
European Gas: A Tale of Two Markets
Gas prices are highly volatile, especially in the short-term, because demand is not only strongly seasonal but also unpredictable
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April 2, 2002
Nigerian Gas – An Unwelcome Bounty
Despite these huge natural gas reserves, there is currently no natural active gas exploration in Nigeria.
2001
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October 1, 2001
Prospects for Caspian Gas
Ever since it began to attract the attention of foreign oil companies in the late-1980s, the Caspian Sea region has been regarded as an oil rather than a gas province.
